Price velocity of the SPX has been rising while the VVIX and VIX have been falling over Q4 of 2016.
Here is one suggestion:
You’d have expected the VIX to rise due to an increase in the US base rate, which would cause volatility increases but this hasn’t happened. An introduction of the risk free rate should lead to a flight from higher risk assets to holding cash in an account (technically). This hasn’t happened.
What’s more is that the SKEW hit 6 year highs in January. This is the evaluative measure of tail end risk in out of the money options. Short term hedging ends up costing more, which prices a risk event short term. View the tweet from Chris Lemieux here:
I’m bored of saying that something is coming but it’s best to be aware of a few different events and when there is a feeling of complacency then there could be an issue.