Is It Time To Start Accumulating Shorts on SP500?

Took a quick look at the COT data for today.

Commercial hedgers are holding an extreme net short position while non-comm speculators are holding an extreme net long position. Theory says that when these two are aligned in this fashion, you see a market turning point (SP500 is at all time highs). Chart below:

As of writing, the COT data was as follows:

The ratio of calls:puts is 0.55 (for every new call contract party there are almost 2 new put option contract holders).

This would lead me to believe that there is some severe downside preparation and that a change in commercial hedger positioning from here would lead to a bearish market. Technically, I feel that seeing a topping pattern an a strong rejection higher on an end of week candle could be the catalyst for strong downside movement. I believe that if we get a stronger approach to 2,200 this week and a rejection of that number, that could very well be what the market is looking for in order to really start puking any long holdings.


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